NOAA Raises Atlantic Hurricane Outlook for July
Sea-surface temperatures across the basin are running 1.2°C above the long-term average.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Tuesday morning raised its Atlantic hurricane outlook for July, citing sea-surface temperatures that are running well above the long-term average and a La Niña pattern in the Pacific that historically reduces vertical wind shear across the Atlantic basin.
What changed
The updated outlook calls for 17 to 22 named storms this season, of which 9 to 12 are expected to become hurricanes, with 4 to 6 reaching major-hurricane status. The prior outlook, released in May, called for 13 to 19 named storms.
Why the sea-surface temperatures matter
Warmer water is fuel. A storm that would ordinarily dissipate over cooler mid-latitude water may, in these conditions, sustain and intensify. The 1.2°C anomaly measured in the main development region off West Africa is the largest at this point in the calendar in the modern record.
What the Southeast should watch
Emergency management agencies from Louisiana through the Carolinas began pre-positioning supplies over the weekend. The Georgia Emergency Management Agency has, for the first time since 2017, moved its state operations center to enhanced staffing through mid-October.
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