The Fed's Summer Patience Has a Shelf Life
Two cuts are priced in. Three would require something to break.
Fed-funds futures price roughly two quarter-point cuts by year-end. The labor data is consistent with that path. The inflation data, at the margin, is not.
The split on the Committee
Three voting members have publicly signaled comfort with cutting at the September meeting. Two have publicly resisted. The remainder, as ever, are watching the data and reserving the right to surprise.
Business Editor in New York. Covers public markets and the private capital cycle.
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